Why do we care about FriendFeed?
By Huw Leslie | February 26, 2008
FriendFeed announced that they had publicly launched and acquired funding to the tune of $5 million on Monday, and in the short 24 hours since then has apparently achieved phenomenal growth - they have suddenly gained a vast userbase and appear a long way along the road to being the next ‘hot startup’ beloved of the Web 2.0 community, in the same vein as a long line of well known products such as Twitter, Google Reader, Flickr, Del.icio.us.
The Web 2.0 crowd regularly chooses itself new shiny objects (not to necessarily belittle those choices), and so what has occurred with FriendFeed is not unprecedented in that sense. What I believe has been unique in this case is the speed at which this has happened; even Twitter, the most recent and perhaps also most relevant example, did not achieve popularity as fast as this. By the time of SXSW last year, seen as its tipping point, it had already rode a more modest growth curve for several months. FriendFeed, by contrast, has just emerged from a private beta which I suspect had much smaller usage than Twitter enjoyed in the weeks and months preceding its tipping point of the scale which
So why has this happened? Part of it is a testament to the product; it fulfils a clear need - the difficulty in following one’s friends’ activities around the web in a quick, simple way - and the fact that one of its co-founders was the first developer of Gmail at Google means that it is no surprise that the user experience is first rate. But that alone cannot account for the success. There are plenty of other great products, which solve a problem and are executed well, which are released but which haven’t achieved the instant traction of FriendFeed.
It’s not as though FriendFeed is the only startup to recieve comprehensive coverage from the tech blogosphere, either. TechCrunch, Mashable, Read/WriteWeb and VentureBeat have led the charge, and have certainly been joined by a throng of smaller sites, but that happens every day. The haul of coverage on TechMeme isn’t exactly earthshattering:
FriendFeed is a social network of sorts, and its biggest barrier to adoption was always going to be achieving the network effect, the classic example of this expressed by the question ‘who did the first PayPal member send money to?’ It is stating the obvious to argue that FriendFeed’s utility does not inherently lie with the product, but with its userbase.
And this key fact about FriendFeed’s model also goes the furthest to explaining why it has been able to become as popular as quickly as it has. The speed at which the ‘chicken and egg’ problem occurred meant that it wasn’t really a problem at all.
So how did FriendFeed achieve this? They built their product so that the inherent barrier to adoption (the network effect) was minimized to such an extent that launch-day momentum could carry them over it in one go. More specifically, they didn’t release too early. Even their invite-only private beta had a fairly comprehensive feature set and good user experience, and the product they launched today is well polished. That might be seeing as running contrary to the oft-repeated ‘release early, release often’ mantra, which certainly has some validity. If they had launched with only a semi-useful product, the difficulty in the network effect would have been compounded by poor levels of user activity. Having encouraged a user to sign up, it is essential that he invites his friends.
Further, by not releasing in drips and drabs (stealth, then super-private alpha with leaked screenshots to TechCrunch, then a few sparse invites, then more widely available invites - you get the picture), FriendFeed concentrated a significant proportion of their PR capital in a single day, creating a short burst which they gambled correctly would be sufficient to take them over the ‘bump’ of achieving the network effect.
All in all- clever strategic planning exhibited by a top rate team. They’ve been very intelligent in the way that they have designed their product as well, and the commentary here on their strategic decisions isn’t intended to take away from the fact that any web startup must start with a great product if it wants to have even a hope of success. I’ve sort of taken that for granted here.
And you can find me on FriendFeed here.
Topics: Startups | No Comments »
Mainstream media’s going nowhere
By Huw Leslie | January 27, 2008
An idea which persists despite my deep irritation at it is that somehow the world of new media, meaning the blogosphere, Twitter, Facebook – whatever the startup du jour happens to be, will replace traditional media. Just as town criers (did they exist anywhere apart from the UK) were rendered useless by newspapers, the newspaper industry will be replaced by blogs. Nothing quite like a list, so here goes:
1. It’s the brand, stupid
Media is all about the brands; brands are what attract audiences and advertisers alike. They engender trust – the BBC or the Wall Street Journal brands are good examples of this. Without even looking at a piece of content, the audience already expects it to be good. They create loyalty – if I enjoyed BBC’s news yesterday, I’ll probably watch them today. Powerful brands are not the preserve of traditional media (just look at TechCrunch or Engadget), but large-scale media, with its massive audience, is in a unique position to create and maintain such brands. And that keeps audiences and advertisers queuing up.
2. Size matters
The massive scope of traditional media operations provides them with a guaranteed spot in the market. The Prime Minister is always going to chose to be interviewed by Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, over Huw Leslie, blogger at For Crying Out Loud, for obvious reasons. Likewise, I’m not going to be reporting on the wars in Iraq or Afganistan for this blog any time soon either. That’s not to say that blogging can’t provide insight on such conflicts; on the contrary, there’s a vast amount of blogging happening, particularly in Iraq, by those who are affected. But there is a valuable perspective that new media just can’t bring because of its scale.
3. Money
Although Google ad revenue in the UK now exceeds that of ITV1, the business model for traditional media remains stronger than that of new media (even including newspaper websites). Part of that is caused by some advertisers’ wariness of online advertising, which will inevitably wear off, but there are aspects of short head ad economics which are more favourable than those of the long tail. First, traditional media, whether online or offline, is likely to have more powerful brands, or at least more reliably strong brands, which advertisers would like to associate themselves with. Second, economies of scale mean that media buyers would rather make a big buy than a small buy, which favours content with a greater audience. Third, user generated content is sometimes undesirable for advertisers to have their brand next to - MySpace has found this a major problem. That means that some significant proportion of advertising dollars will stay with mainstream media.
4. Lost down the tail
Long tail content discovery (the process of finding good content that doesn’t have a big audience) has a long way to go. There’s some great efforts, like Digg and Blog Friends, that are immensely valuable in very different ways, but they don’t solve the problem fully. It still isn’t worth me writing a fascinating blog post that is only interesting to plumbers, even though it might be life-changingly interesting, because it will be so difficult for them to find unless they know that they are looking for it. Inevitably this will improve over time, but it is a major problem that simply isn’t going to go away any time soon and is the major stumbling block to the long tail as it applies to media (and indeed in other contexts as well).
5. OMG!! TMI! (Oh my God, too much information)
Information overload is another problem, in many ways closely linked with content discovery, that is (at least at the moment) inherent to the long tail. I had a quick look at my Google Reader stats; I’m subscribed to 99 feeds, and it looks like I read about 30-40% of all items that come in (I can’t work it out exactly because GReader doesn’t tell me and won’t let me export the data). Of those I guess that I find 50% interesting. Assuming that I enjoy 20% of incoming pieces of content on GReader, that means that 80% shouldn’t have been shown to me, and I have wasted significant amounts of time in disregarding it. I have to spend that time to spend any chance of finding the good stuff – that is an inherent problem with the long tail. Having a quick glance at the Guardian’s homepage or flicking through a magazine when I want some content suddenly seems a lot more appealing.
Caveats
Mainstream media’s survival is, of course, predicated on intelligent leadership. I am merely arguing that it is entirely within their power to stay around. I am not, however, suggesting it will be easy. There will be a squeeze in audience and advertising as both shift ‘down the tail’, and changes will have to be made (and are already being made successfully by some). Neither am I suggesting that newspapers in their current physical form necessarily have a long-term future; whilst they’ve probably got a while yet, it seems highly likely that they will go entirely or substantially digital in the future. Hopefully I have demonstrated that there is a future for the short head, of high-audience, wide-appeal content as well as long tail content; with any luck the years to come will be rosy for both.
Topics: Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Blogging Limbo
By Huw Leslie | January 26, 2008
I’ve just ‘redesigned’ this blog by deciding to switch templates yet again. I think I’m going to stick with this one for a while - it just has that cool factor, I think.
I’m in a bit of a blogging limbo at the moment. I don’t want to stop writing, but after the collapse of Blognation, I’ve not been sure where to write. I thought about restarting GizBuzz, but then doubted my ability and willingness to give sufficient time to it to make a renewed effort worthwhile. I’ve thought about trying to do some casual writing for bigger sites, but haven’t got round to getting in touch with people to arrange it. But frankly, that isn’t the problem.
Pompous as it sounds, I’ve got ‘bloggers block’, because lets face it, I could have been writing here. The very fact that the first post I have written in a while is on my bloggers block shows the desperation of my situation.
Joel is onto something at YouMakeMedia when he states “I don’t believe in writer’s block”, instead attributing it to a mere “deficit of motivation and a surplus of good old fashioned laziness”. Realistically, although I am ridiculously busy at the moment with school work, I do actually have some spare time that I should/could be using to write. I have a reason to write, to improve my skills for a career in journalism that I’m getting keener to pursue every day. Further, I continue to have the ability to write: I’m producing several thousand words a week in essays. And that’s the problem.
It’s a mindshare issue. I am doing so much ’stuff’ that I lose the impetus to do things that I should really be doing, but which have less critical time scales or less direct benefits.
So I’m setting myself a challenge. Next week I am going to post every day on here. I haven’t racked up a load of posts; I’m just going to find something to write about and sit down and actually do it.
Fingers crossed!
Topics: Blogging, Me | 1 Comment »
Blognation’s Demise
By Huw Leslie | December 13, 2007
I don’t think I have anything to add to the blognation fiasco - it has already been extensively written about by some. It does now look as though blognation as it exists at the moment has completely imploded, and that Sam Sethi will have no further involvement as efforts are made to turn what is a great brand and potentially good concept into a valuable company.
I find my optimism on joining blognation about six months ago deeply irritating now. I don’t think it has been an entirely wasted period for me personally however; beyond the obvious “don’t lie to people you do business with”, which I would hope I could have worked out for myself anyway, I do think I have learnt some good lessons, and have come into contact with great people.
So where from here? I haven’t decided yet. In the short term I’ll probably do a bit more blogging here. In the long term, I will certainly continue to blog, although I am not sure what form that will take.
In the meantime, I find this 401 authorisation on Vecosys (Sam Sethi’s domain) deeply disturbing. It says ‘restricted access pre-launch’. The idea of Sam launching something else already seems an incredibly bad one to me.
Topics: Blogging, Me | 2 Comments »
Christmas Concert
By Huw Leslie | December 2, 2007
On the off chance any readers of this blog live in Greenwich, South London, there is a Christmas concert there on the 21st December which I am in. It is a small consort group of young singers. Last year was the first time we did it, and it went really well. The programme for this year is looking fantastic, with some well known numbers, like a great arrangement of Silent Night, Warlock’s Bethlehem Down, and some less well-known, but equally brilliant pieces like Lauridsen’s O Magnum Mysterium. And it wouldn’t be Christmas without a rendition of Jingle Bells!
Unlike most concerts I’m in, there isn’t a ‘promoter’ for this (be it a school, a charity, a venue etc) beyond the Consort itself, so we all have to work particularly hard in persuading to come. It’s a big church, and it we will look silly if no-one comes!
So, here comes the second purpose of this post- are there any ways you can think of to use the internet to advertise an event to non-tech people? If I wanted to run a tech conference I’d know where to start with online promotion, but a classical concert is a different ballgame- all suggestions gratefully received!
Topics: Me | 1 Comment »
No election
By Huw Leslie | October 11, 2007
I’m really relieved that Gordon Brown won’t be calling an election this autumn, for a couple of reasons.
The big one: I want to vote as soon as possible, and won’t be eighteen until October 2008. So there musn’t be an election before then. Any point after October 2008 is absolutely fine. Had there been an election in November, there would be no compulsion upon the resulting government to go to the country until November 2013.
The smaller one: I don’t want a hung parliament, which was a risk had there been an election. Neither Conservative or Labour have a defining vision at the moment to unite the country behind them to any meaningful extent, as Margaret Thatcher did in 1979 (rescue Britain from the misery of the Winter of Discontent by wrestling control back from the unions) and Tony Blair did in 1997 (socialism that doesn’t damage the economy). This means that the poll results are more unstable, and voters more fickle. We can see that by the massive effect that the relatively insignificant Tory announcement of an increase in the threshold for income tax had on the polls. This instability could, possibly, have led to a hung parliament, which would have been bad for Britain, since we wouldn’t be able to go in any particular forward direction with a coalition.
So Gordon Brown ultimately made the right strategic decision, with the added bonus of letting me vote more quickly after I turn eighteen.
Topics: Politics | No Comments »
Dawkins v McGrath
By Huw Leslie | July 14, 2007
Somehow I don’t find it surprising that my favourite athiest Richard Dawkins couldn’t find the time to include the interview below with Alister McGrath in his documentary - after all, moderate, non-creationist Christians aren’t nearly as interesting as fiery mouthed, intellectually challenged creationists, are they?
Anyway, at least he was persuaded to upload his interview with McGrath to Google Video. McGrath is the author of the excellent Dawkins Delusion, and makes several good points in the interview. He annoyed me when talking about the problem of evil - he argued that the world comes as-is, and God doesn’t interfere, and therefore allows evil to happen. Well, that doesn’t solve the inconsistent triad of benevolence, omnipotence and evil, because if He were benevolent and omnipotent he would intervene. He does, however, hint at the more sensible explanation that natural evil offers humans the chance to respond to it, and points out that a ‘toy world’ (Swinburne) with no evil just wouldn’t work. That explanation is entirely adequate, and I see no need to add the slightly incoherent fluff that almost leans towards process theodicy.
Dawkins talked about a hypothetical situation in which one girl survived a hurricane, and ten thousand died; the parents of the girl praised God for a miracle, and Dawkins rightly asked whether God did save the girl, and if so, why did he not save the ten thousand? Again, McGrath could have expressed himself better. He hinted at anti-realism, in that he mentioned the human need to praise God, but he should have emphasised that more. My view, broadly speaking, is that it is irrelevant whether or not God directly intervened to save the girl. Whether he did or not has no effect. The effect is caused by the fact that the parents either believe or do not believe that God intervened. The fact that they do is potentially powerful in guiding their future faith and behaviour. That is the crucial point which needs to be raised, and I think that definitely counts as a ’silver lining’ effect under the Irenaean Theodicy. If McGrath had taken that angle, there would not have been the inconsistency which Dawkins correctly spotted.
Other than that, a great interview. I was pleasantly surprised to see Dawkins in moderate mood. Presumably he would not have been as moderate had the interview been conducted more recently; McGrath called him the ‘grumpy atheist’, and Dawkins has retaliated by quoting Yeats, comparing himself to a dog, and McGrath to a flea. Now now children.
Topics: Theology | No Comments »
Alan Johnston
By Huw Leslie | July 7, 2007
It’s difficult to express just how pleased I feel that I can remove the ‘Free Alan Johnston’ badge from the sidebar. It’s absolutely fantastic that he has been freed, not only because of him but because of the symbol he has become for journalistic freedom and mission.
It’s good for the middle east as well. I’m strongly in favour of the west opening discussions with Hamas, and I suspect that this is already secretly taking place. Of course Hamas needs to recognise Israel and renounce violence, but the west also needs to recognise that Hamas is the democratically elected party of government of Palestine, and appreciate why that has happened. With the appointment of TB as Middle East envoy for the Quartet and the release of Alan Johnston I’m hoping that we’ve reached a point where the peace process will be given renewed energy - it’s not like we’ve got any choice if we want a secure and just world in the future.
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Dear oh dear
By Huw Leslie | June 3, 2007
The new launch of Zooomr has been a shambles, and the final product isn’t even that interesting. It is far too buggy to have been released and it adds little in the way of innovation. I was going to write a review of Mark III when it was released on GizBuzz, but I don’t think I will now, mainly because I feel guilty being horrible about it, for obvious reasons. Fortunately I can write it here because hardly anyone reads this blog, so I feel less guilty.
For an excellent account of the release, check out this post by Zoli Erdos. If what he’s saying is true, then Kris’ lack of experience has been a major problem behind the release. It kinda pains me to write this given the immense respect I (and others on the Oratos team, incidentally) have for what Kris has achieved.
Where from here, then? It has become clear that the KT-TH partnership on Zooomr is no longer enough if it is to prosper. They have handled the community aspect mostly brilliantly (albeit with an occasional lack of sufficient information - see Zoli’s post). Things that haven’t been handled well have been engineering and monetisation. Both those point to needing VC or at least angel funding. Funding would provide the ability to hire a couple of experienced engineers and investors would provide the pressure to find a proper business model.
They should also build out a ‘community board’. Get famous people from the community like Scoble (who would love to do this), as well as some clever entrepreneurs from the valley, who might be less known but have better ideas, and finally some random Zooomr users who live locally to help in coming up with ideas and strategy, with monthly-or-so meetings. Zooomr gets great advice and coverage, and in return Zooomr leverages their community to generate lots of good will for everyone who helps them out, as they have done with those who lent them hardware this week. They shouldn’t pay the advisors.
That should solve the problem.
Topics: Uncategorized | 6 Comments »
Off again
By Huw Leslie | May 26, 2007
I’m going up North again tomorrow; I won’t have internet access for the first few days, but I should by Wednesday.
Topics: Me | No Comments »